There are all the time a ton of nice storylines to observe every NFL season, and bettors have to do their greatest to maintain up with all of the modifications. For 2021, one of many largest tales will revolve across the array of rookie head coaches who might be pacing the sidelines.
There are six in all — Robert Saleh, Jets; David Culley, Texans; City Meyer, Jaguars; Brandon Staley, Chargers; Arthur Smith, Falcons; Nick Sirianni, Eagles. That doesn’t embrace the Lions’ Dan Campbell, who was interim coach of the Dolphins for 12 video games. Six first-time coaches ties for the best quantity in any yr of the previous decade. Listed below are a couple of rookie teaching methods to regulate:
Of the 34 rookie head coaches who inherited groups that completed below .500 the earlier season, 26 led their groups to raised information the following season. With all six of this yr’s new hires taking on groups that have been 7-9 or worse, that may imply 4 or 5 of the groups determine to enhance. If the quantity is 4, my guesses can be Atlanta, Jacksonville, the Jets and Philadelphia.
Of the eight rookie head coaches over the previous 10 seasons who inherited offenses that scored at the very least 23.5 ppg the earlier season, the crew of just one produced a worse file the following season. The others improved by about 2.5 wins per season. The brand new coaches taking on competent 2020 offenses are Smith, Culley and Staley.
There was a number of room to develop when a brand new head coach takes over a crew that scored fewer than 18 ppg the earlier season. There have been fast outcomes for this fortunate group of coaches, as 9 of 10 groups that match this invoice over the previous decade have improved, by a median of 4.9 wins per season. The coach trying to proceed this pattern is Saleh with the Jets.
Level differential has additionally proved to be a great indicator of potential enchancment because the final 10 rookie coaches to inherit groups that have been outscored by 8.5 or extra ppg have introduced instantaneous change to their golf equipment. All 10 improved their franchise’s win complete that first season, by a median of 4.8 wins. For 2021, we’ve got two candidates: Saleh and Meyer.
So far as in-season game-by-game betting alternatives, it needs to be famous rookie head coaches have produced a regular-season file of 302-353-1 SU and 322-313-21 ATS over the previous decade. In different phrases, they lose greater than they win on the scoreboard, however win greater than they lose on the betting window. Listed below are another issues to think about relating to betting on and in opposition to rookie head coaches all through the NFL season:
Rookie head coaches have been much more proficient at masking level spreads on the highway over the previous decade. Right here is the breakdown: House video games — 149-163-14 ATS (47.7 p.c). Highway video games — 170-148-7 ATS (53.5 p.c). It appears oddsmakers are inclined to shade traces in opposition to these rookie coaches on the highway, wrongly assuming the strain and problem of the highway environments will have an effect on the execution stage.
As favorites of 6 factors or extra since 2011, rookie head coaches are 61-19 SU, good for 76.3 p.c outright, however have gone simply 33-46-1 ATS, a masking price of simply 41.8 p.c.
Rookie head coaches even have struggled within the massive underdog position, going 34-143 SU (19.2 p.c) and 84-88-5 ATS (48.8 p.c when catching 6 factors or extra since 2011).